an autodidact meets a dilettante…

a dialogue/monologue promoting humanism, science, skepticism, globalism and femocracy, and demoting ignorance, patriarchy, thuggery and zero-sum game nationalism

Posts Tagged ‘Putin

Trump’s downfall: more palaver

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dream, dream, dream

As I’ve often said, I’m lazily distracting myself by watching Trump’s downfall and commenting on it. I don’t seem to have the staying power at present to write anything too sciencey, and the Trump disaster is easy to attend to, though I must say I mute the TV or youtube every time the Trump comes on (isn’t it funny how the name itself smacks of the con man). I much prefer hearing about him second-hand. Again, though, I must say my prediction of him being out by the end of the year looks more of a dead cert than ever. It’s just a matter of the Mueller team having too much on their plates to digest. It’s likely they won’t have finished their meal by year’s end. But Trump may well have been spat out and into gaol by then. It depends of course on how Mueller organises his indictments – bottom up or top down. It could also be a bit of both.

But Trump is America’s tragedy. What happens, after all, once he and his family are ousted? The Presidency itself, the institution, will be seriously damaged. I’m sure the nation will manage to limp along until 2020, and a likely big turnaround in the mid-terms will largely put the nation’s affairs in safer hands, but new, tighter laws will have to be enacted, re nepotism, emoluments, financial disclosure, vetting of candidates for office, inter alia. These are essential to make the USA safe, and to allow it to be taken seriously again on the global stage.

Okay enough of the high-minded lecturing, let’s get down to wallowing in the grubby details. Everybody’s waiting for the next indictment or subpoena from the enquiry. Kushner? Trump Jr? Erik Prince? Roger Stone? Take your pick from these and a host of others. And what about this Stormy Daniels affair, another follow-the-money rib-tickler? Where do I begin?

A shady Lebanese-American wannabe mover-and-shaker, George Nader, has been questioned by the Mueller team, presumably primarily about a meeting in the Seychelles involving himself, an even shadier mover-and-shaker Erik Prince (an advisor to and supporter of Trump), and UAE diplomats with financial ties to Russia. There was apparently a dodgy Russian banker, Kirill Dmitriev, at the meeting as well. There’s little doubt that getting Prince to testify will reveal more dirt, but the team will have to make sure they know everything before asking the questions. I just wish I could listen in on what they do know.

Meanwhile there’s a special election in Pennsylvania and Trump has been there big-noting himself and insulting opponents, mostly women. He’s even promoted the idea of executing drug-dealers, because he’s a great admirer of Phillipines dictator Duterte. I’m currently reading Chasing the scream, a fast-paced narrative and denunciation of the disastrous war on drugs, but of course Trump doesn’t read, and certainly doesn’t care. He just likes the idea of killing people. I’m waiting for the result of this election, waiting for the next subpoena, the next indictment, waiting waiting…

I’m also hoping that women will play a major role in Trump’s downfall. I’m a little wary of the Me Too movement, having been falsely accused myself. True, I wasn’t accused by a woman, but it has taught me very effectively that accusations can be easily made, and with devastating consequences. But what the movement highlights is that, because of power imbalance, men have been treating women too badly for too long, and women are fighting back. It’s interesting to note that the Politico article just linked to cited recent research which ‘found women were nearly twice as likely as men to be deterred from running for office because of potentially having to engage in a negative campaign’. Such campaigns are what so many men like Trump choose naturally as their MO. And here’s another interesting quote, with an Australian theme:

In 2016, the Guardian published an analysis that found Hillary Clinton received abusive tweets at almost twice the rate of her Democratic primary opponent Bernie Sanders, while former Australian prime minister Julia Gillard, too, received about twice as much abuse as her male challenger, Kevin Rudd.

Actually, Rudd and Gillard belonged to the same party, but it’s probably right to describe them as opponents.

So I’m hoping that after the carnage of this Presidency, with Trump and his family in jail and his successor discredited, that the President after 2020 will be a woman. Obviously she will be a Democrat.

Elizabeth Warren has struck me as very impressive, from my still fairly minimal observations of her – a leftish liberal more palatable to the squeamish Americans than Sanders. After some more research I may write a piece about her. I certainly wouldn’t want any ‘celebrity’ female candidates running for office, and I suspect Hillary Clinton has done her dash.

As I slowly write, things keep happening. Rex Tillerson has been sacked. Silly man, he should’ve resigned long ago. I’ve had a bit of a fantasy in which all the top White House staffers and Trump appointees get together, decide enough is enough, and stage a mass resignation. It would actually be better for them – instead of being stuck in utterly thankless jobs, they’d come out of it as instantly employable for having the guts to take a stand. But of course, this would take organisation and co-ordination, and we’ve seen no evidence of that in this administration.

Finally, Putin has attempted to murder another Russian expatriate, along with his daughter. Many others have been poisoned too. Trump has belatedly come out in support of the British government’s rather tepid statement that Russia is ‘highly likely’ to be behind the nerve agent attack – though the whole statement is worth reading. Putin’s minions are saying that given Putin’s recent announcement that they’ve created some kind of super-weapon, it’s dangerous to accuse Russia of wrong-doing. To me, this is tantamount to an admission of guilt, and fairly solid proof of Monsieur Putain’s mafioso scumbag credentials. How to deal with this? Internationally and with unassailable solidarity. Russia has already been brought to its knees by Putin’s thievery, but we need to apply more pressure and provide as much support as we can to the millions of Russians who want to be freed of this scumbag so they can enter the adult world.

I’m a little disappointed that the Trump is still holding good at 40%, which should ensure he doesn’t get re-elected (yes yes, out of office by year’s end), it seems that only more indictments of the inner circle will drop him down below 35. Not sure if I mentioned this before, but I’m reading Chasing the scream, the racy but horrifyingly tragic bestseller by Johann Hari about the spectacularly disastrous ‘war on drugs’ in the USA and Mexico (disastrously forced on it by the US). The Trump recently threw red meat to his base by promoting the idea of execution for drug dealers (in the campaign for the Pennsylvania by-election, won by the Dems, haha), another know-nothing piece of squawking from someone who knows nothing but the idea of crushing, stamping, beating. It’s Mussolini without the hanging – yet.

Written by stewart henderson

March 15, 2018 at 10:26 pm

Trump’s downfall: the Russians keep on coming

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Yevgeniy Prigozhin, one of Putin’s mafioso thugs, and boss of Russian Bot Enterprises

Now to return to that fun topic, the dumping of Trump. Just to repeat, I’ve predicted that Trump will be ousted by year’s end, and I’m today feeling more confident in that prediction than ever, though my optimism meter has bounced about over the past few months.

The so-called speaking indictment recently released by special counsel Robert Mueller has put paid to Trump’s windy blather about ‘the fake Russia thing’. I suspect this was part of its intention. Being true patriots and all, the Mueller team want to prove to the American people once and for all that they’re under attack, contra Trump and his GOP supporters. They’ve indicted 13 Russian individuals and 3 companies on 8 counts, including conspiracy to defraud the US, conspiracy to commit wire and bank fraud, and several counts of aggravated identity theft, and they’ve told a detailed 37-page story to back it all up. And although the indictment doesn’t provide direct evidence of Russian government involvement, it states that funding was provided by Yevgeniy Prigozhin, a close ally and friend of Putin. The indictment is available online here and no doubt elsewhere.

Clearly this’ll stump Trump. The terms ruse, witch-hunt and fake news will no longer be so easily available to him. He himself tweeted shortly after the indictment was announced that because the conspiracy was first launched in 2014, he was somehow in the clear. Not only is this obviously false, the tweet unwittingly admits that the Russian conspiracy was real. I heard that he quickly regretted this, but oops, too late, because his possibly soon-to-be ex-national security advisor HR Puffnstuff McMaster has announced that the indictment provides incontrovertible evidence of the Russian conspiracy.

Rubs hand with glee

So it seems Trump wants to continue to undermine Mueller’s credible findings, and meanwhile American adults will want to know when sanctions will be imposed on Russia and what will be done to safeguard the November elections. These sanctions have already been voted for in Congress, but Trump hasn’t signed them into law. My guess is he’ll try to use the ‘argument’ that the Russian conspiracy had no impact on the 2016 election to do nothing. But that’s a pretty dangerous course to take.

The impact of the Russian conspiracy on the election is impossible to prove one way or another (you can’t read the minds of voters), and it isn’t a focus of the Mueller enquiry, which is entirely concerned with illegal activities. The fact that Trump isn’t at all concerned, as America’s head of state, that Russians engaged in illegal activities to meddle in US elections, should be, you’d think, of enormous concern to citizens of one of the most jingoistic nations on Earth. It should surely be his downfall, and a national scandal. But maybe I’m misreading things. After all, I was never able to believe that Trump could be elected in any civilised country.

Which of course raises the question – why is Trump so reluctant to sanction the Russians? Is it just because of his man-crush, or is it something deeper and more sinister? As many pundits are saying, we’ll get the answer to that by following the money, which is surely what Mueller is doing.

Having just read the full indictment – which really is a page-turner – I find it pretty compelling in its argument and wealth of evidence, and yet on listening to the mainstream cable news networks (CNN and MSNBC) over these last few months, I’m coming to realise that there’s a vast bulk of Americans, perhaps a third, who are so hooked into Fox News and its so obviously crude and distorted view of the US political scene that, it seems, nothing will move them to save themselves from their patently anti-democratic wannabe dictator. I get my occasional glimpses of Fox News and its tirades from the other networks, though I snatch a few direct looks myself. It really is appalling – hilarious in a death-black sort of way. If this number of people believe this sort of guff, and this ferociously, then ultimate action against Trump could lead to something like civil war, an outcome beyond the Russians’ wildest hopes.

One of the more grotesque claims now being made by the Fox Media-Trump cabal is that the Russian meddling was completely without impact, so why bother going after them? Better to go after the Mueller team, the FBI, the CIA and other ‘enemies of the nation’. Again, could this outcome be any better for the Russians?

I’ve said that it can’t be proved that the Russian bots and trolls influenced the outcome of the 2016 election. You can’t prove that any single voter had her vote decided by a particular rally or online article or image or whatever. That’s why the enquiry never intended to investigate this. It’s police enquiry, after all, so it’s investigating illegal methods and activities. But as to the results of these methods, we assert a few facts. The Russians’ principal focus was denigrating and debilitating the Clinton campaign – that’s surely why they ‘supported’ Sanders. Another major focus was supporting Trump (though occasionally muddying the waters) – that’s surely why they attacked the campaigns of Cruz and Rubio. Another salient fact is that the Trump election campaign was successful, confounding nearly all the pundits. The Russians would’ve had multiple reasons for supporting Trump, including some sort of quid pro quo, but one reason surely was that, since the Russians’ intentions were profoundly anti-democratic, as is shown by their efforts to disrupt democracies around the world, it would be screamingly obvious to promote the cause of perhaps the most profoundly anti-democratic candidate ever to contest a US presidential election.

It seems unthinkable that Trump wouldn’t act against the Russians, and it seems unthinkable that the American people would let him get away with this. Current reporting from Wired online tells us that pro-gun Russian bots are trolling over the Florida killings, as they did at the time of the Las Vegas massacre and on other occasions. It’s surely past time for the people to rise up against a leader who cares nothing about this and would obstruct efforts to act. Maybe they’re hoping that Mueller will do their job for them. I think, though, this needs more than just Mueller. The adults need to take over the asylum.

Written by stewart henderson

February 19, 2018 at 3:54 pm

Posted in Fox News

Tagged with , , , , ,

watching Trump’s downfall – follow the money

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veteran federal prosecutor Andrew Weissmann, bullish criminal fraud expert and key member of the Mueller team

Canto: The good thing about the Mueller investigation, or ‘special counsel enquiry’, is its broad terms of reference, as we Australians would describe it. The brief of the enquiry is to investigate any links and/or co-ordination between the Russian government and individuals associated with the campaign of President Donald Trump, and any matter that arose or may arise directly from the investigation…

Jacinta: So that would include obstructing justice, but I’m not sure that the firing of James Comey, then head of the FBI, in May 2017, will fit the ‘obstruction of justice’ category.

Canto: But the FBI were investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election, and Trump more or less admitted, just after firing Comey, that it was because of the ‘Russia thing’.

Jacinta: ‘More or less’ isn’t good enough, and it could be argued that justice wasn’t obstructed because Comey’s firing led directly to the Mueller investigation.

Canto: Okay forget obstructing justice, at least for now, I was going to talk about money. That’s to say, matters arising directly from the investigation. That’s how Paul Manafort and Rick Gates were indicted. They were lobbying for the pro-Russian faction in Ukraine, in particular the disgustingly villainous Viktor Yanukovych, but were involved, not incidentally, in massive money-laundering schemes. So they’re in big trouble, and it’s well known that Trump and his family are up to their ears in Russian money, and if Trump’s finances aren’t dodgy, then the term dodgy surely has no meaning. Mueller’s team, detailed here, ‘possess a vast array of experience investigating financial fraud, corruption, money laundering, foreign bribery, and organized crime’. A perfect bunch to catch out Trump.

Jacinta: You’re making a few assumptions here about Trump’s corruption. Yes he’s a bullshit artist, he doesn’t have any normal concept of the truth, he’s ignorant, he’s inhumane, he’s a bully and much more. That doesn’t make him a criminal. If he was involved in the kind of activities Manafort was involved in, he surely would’ve been indicted by now.

Canto: They may have enough to indict him, but doing so would bring the investigation to a spectacular halt. His indictment might be the cherry on the cake, the last thing to add. First they’ll be spiralling in on the family, Kushner and Trump Jr…

Jacinta: You’re sounding like the most optimistic anti-Trump pundit, imagining they already have mountains of evidence, they’re just adding to the pile to make this the most spectacular house-of-cards downfall in US history, for which their names (I mean the Mueller team) will be covered in eternal glory. I’m a little sceptical.

Canto: Trump has never produced his tax returns and I’m assuming he has much to hide. His companies declared bankruptcy four times in the early nineties, and two more times in the 2000s. It came to the point where the only bank that would lend to him was Deutsche Bank, a financial institution that was at the same time heavily into laundering Russian money. And it’s no secret that Trump and his family are heavily indebted to Russian oligarchs – super-rich members of Putin’s kleptocracy. Naturally they’re expecting a quid pro quo. This is where the interference lies – Trump’s indebtedness and the Russian government’s expectations.

Jacinta: But has Russia really benefitted, apart from Trump’s fawning over Putin? There was talk of the Trump administration going easy on Russia in exchange for dirt on Clinton, but it hasn’t actually happened has it? Trump’s personal indebtedness to Russians, if proven, doesn’t prove that he or his team conspired with Russians to subvert the US political/democratic system. I mean, there’s no doubt the Russians have been trying to subvert the American, and British and French and other western governments, and they were working toward a Trump victory in 2016 for obvious reasons, but whether or not they conspired directly with the Trump team, that’s unclear. Certainly the Russians would’ve tried to, but did they actually succeed, and what evidence has there been of a quid pro quo?

Canto: We don’t know, but it’s likely that Mueller’s team does. They’ve subpoenaed Deutsche Bank for documents relating to Trump and his family’s finances, though this has been denied by Trump’s lawyer Jay Sekulow. Deutsche Bank is about the only major bank in the world willing to lend to Trump, and it was found guilty of laundering some $10 billion dollars of Russian money last year. Kushner received a loan of $285 million from Deutsche Bank in 2016, just before election day. The Mueller investigators will know much much more about this than we or any reporters do. It’s about connecting the dots, to quote one reporter, between the Trump and Kushner finances, Deutsche Bank and Putin and his billionaire kleptocrats. Apparently Trump and his companies have received no less than $3.5 billion in loans and loan-guarantee agreements from Deutsche Bank since 1998. It’s impossible to believe that Mueller’s lawyers aren’t shining all sorts of lights on all this murkiness and making more sense of it than has ever been made before. I look forward to the next indictment. It might be the most fateful one yet.

Jacinta: Okay, here’s a question. What exactly is money laundering?

Canto: Well, as the term suggests, it’s about turning dirty money into apparently clean stuff. Ill-gotten into ‘legit’. Though the term has become envaguened in recent years,

Jacinta: Good word.

Canto: Thanks, so now it just about covers all kinds of dodgy financial dealings, including terrorist financing. But the key, usually, is to give the appearance of legitimacy to money obtained illegally or wrongfully. And of course the variety of ways this can be done is just about endless. So let me tell you about the Deutsche Bank ‘mirror trade’ system. It was about accepting two trades at once that looked essentially equal and opposite, one in roubles, the other in dollars or other western currencies. These trades looked innocuous but their real purpose was to convert money, and to shift it out of Russia. This, inter alia, helped to ‘clean up’ the money, which was more often than not of dubious origin, given Putin’s kleptocracy.

Jacinta: Just a quick read of Deutsche Bank’s history reveals scandal after scandal, a history of corruption – fraud, price manipulation and so on… which makes me long to get off the topic of money-grubbing and kleptomania and political jiggery-pokery and back to sciencey subjects. I’ve had enough.

Canto: Okay, I’ll try to get my mind off the Trump spectacle – what will happen will happen. No more, I promise – for a while. Just let me end with a list of dictators Trump has lavished praise on. Of course there’s Russia’s Putin and Duterte of the Philippines, but there’s also Nursultan Nazarbayev, dictator of Kazakhstan for the last 25 years; Xi Jinping, long-time leader and now dictator of China, lover of execution and other forms of repression; Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi, Egypt’s new repressive macho-man; Recep Erdogan, the Turkish bag of shit; and he’s expressed approval of Kim Jong Un and even Saddam Hussein. In fact, anybody who doesn’t seize power for himself (no women allowed) and hold onto it for a long time is considered a lightweight…

Jacinta: Okay calm down, let’s look at different sorts of power in the future…

 

Written by stewart henderson

January 4, 2018 at 10:53 am